World Cup 2026

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Round of 32 · Knockout · 2026-07-02
Portugal
xG 4.35
HT 0–02 – 1
Croatia
xG 2.91
Portugal Cristiano Ronaldo 68′ (pen.), Gonçalo Ramos 90+4′  ·  Croatia Ivan Perisic 53′
BMO Field · 43,036 attendance
The story

A mild upset: Portugal (47% pre-match) got past Croatia. The decisive moment came late, in the 90th minute.

Expected goals race
123450′15′30′45′60′75′90′4.35Cristiano Ronaldo 68′Gonçalo Ramos 90′2.91Ivan Perisic 53′
Portugal Croatia ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Ante Budimir · 3′ · xG 0.19 · Shot Off TargetBruno Fernandes · 4′ · xG 0.27 · Shot On TargetBruno Fernandes · 4′ · xG 0.66 · Shot BlockedVitinha · 4′ · xG 0.11 · Shot BlockedJoão Cancelo · 7′ · xG 0.13 · Shot Off TargetAnte Budimir · 10′ · xG 0.17 · Shot Off TargetCristiano Ronaldo · 13′ · xG 0.06 · Shot BlockedRenato Veiga · 16′ · xG 0.40 · Shot Off TargetJoão Neves · 24′ · xG 0.36 · Shot Off TargetMartin Baturina · 28′ · xG 0.12 · Shot BlockedNuno Mendes · 34′ · xG 0.09 · Shot BlockedRafael Leão · 45'+1′ · xG 0.20 · Shot Off TargetMateo Kovacic · 48′ · xG 0.24 · Shot On TargetNikola Vlasic · 49′ · xG 0.15 · Shot Off TargetIvan Perisic · 53′ · xG 0.24 · Goal? · 58′ · xG 0.10 · Shot Hit WoodworkPetar Sucic · 59′ · xG 0.19 · Shot On TargetCristiano Ronaldo · 68′ · xG 0.76 · Penalty - ScoredMateo Kovacic · 75′ · xG 0.09 · Shot On TargetMateo Kovacic · 75′ · xG 0.17 · Shot On TargetIgor Matanovic · 76′ · xG 0.31 · Shot Off TargetIgor Matanovic · 77′ · xG 0.25 · Shot On TargetRenato Veiga · 87′ · xG 0.47 · Shot Off TargetMario Pasalic · 89′ · xG 0.41 · Shot Off TargetGonçalo Ramos · 90'+1′ · xG 0.30 · Shot Off TargetGonçalo Ramos · 90'+4′ · xG 0.29 · Goal - HeaderIgor Matanovic · 90'+9′ · xG 0.39 · Shot BlockedFrancisco Conceição · 90'+12′ · xG 0.15 · Shot Off Target
Portugal (attacking →) Croatia (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Portugal  ·  match stats  ·  Croatia
60.4 Possession 39.6
15 Shots 13
3 On Target 6
9 Corners 5
6 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 4
5 Saves 2
1 Yellows 2
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Portugal 47%draw 25%Croatia 28%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Portugal 2001, Croatia 1932. The model priced this Portugal 47% / draw 25% / Croatia 28%, most likely score 1–1. A plausible-but-not-favoured outcome. The result moves 20 Elo points from Croatia to Portugal — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
17' YELLOWRúben Dias (Portugal) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
45' SUBSubstitution, Croatia. Igor Matanovic replaces Ante Budimir.
53' GOALGoal! Portugal 0, Croatia 1. Ivan Perisic (Croatia) left footed shot from the left side of the box to the centre of the goal.
59' YELLOWLuka Modric (Croatia) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
62' SUBSubstitution, Portugal. Bernardo Silva replaces Vitinha.
63' SUBSubstitution, Portugal. Francisco Conceição replaces Pedro Neto.
63' SUBSubstitution, Portugal. Nélson Semedo replaces Bruno Fernandes.
63' SUBSubstitution, Portugal. Gonçalo Ramos replaces João Cancelo.
68' PEN GOALGoal! Portugal 1, Croatia 1. Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the centre of the goal.
68' SUBSubstitution, Croatia. Mario Pasalic replaces Martin Baturina.
81' SUBSubstitution, Portugal. Rúben Neves replaces Cristiano Ronaldo.
90'+2' SUBSubstitution, Croatia. Josko Gvardiol replaces Nikola Vlasic.
90'+4' GOALGoal! Portugal 2, Croatia 1. Gonçalo Ramos (Portugal) header from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Rafael Leão with a cross.
90'+6' SUBSubstitution, Croatia. Andrej Kramaric replaces Mateo Kovacic.
90'+8' YELLOWIvan Perisic (Croatia) is shown the yellow card.
Lineups
Portugal
4-2-3-1
  • 1Diogo Costa G
  • 13Renato Veiga CD-L
  • 3Rúben Dias CD-R
  • 25Nuno Mendes LB
  • 20João Cancelo RB
  • 8Bruno Fernandes AM
  • 23Vitinha LM
  • 15João Neves RM
  • 7Cristiano Ronaldo F
  • 17Rafael Leão AM-L
  • 18Pedro Neto AM-R
Subs: Bernardo Silva, Francisco Conceição, Nélson Semedo, Gonçalo Ramos, Rúben Neves
Croatia
4-2-3-1
  • 1Dominik Livakovic G
  • 3Marin Pongracic CD-L
  • 6Josip Sutalo CD-R
  • 14Ivan Perisic LB
  • 2Josip Stanisic RB
  • 17Petar Sucic AM
  • 8Mateo Kovacic LM
  • 10Luka Modric RM
  • 11Ante Budimir F
  • 16Martin Baturina AM-L
  • 13Nikola Vlasic AM-R
Subs: Igor Matanovic, Mario Pasalic, Josko Gvardiol, Andrej Kramaric
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).