Ecuador 2–1 Germany — World Cup 2026

Matchday 15 · Group E · 2026-06-25

Ecuador

xG 2.92

HT 1–12 – 1

Germany

xG 1.79

Ecuador Nilson Angulo 9′, Gonzalo Plata 77′ · Germany Leroy Sané 2′

MetLife Stadium · 80,663 attendance

The story

A genuine shock — the model gave Ecuador just 17% before kick-off, and they beat Germany anyway.

Expected goals race

Ecuador Germany ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map

Ecuador (attacking →) Germany (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal

Ecuador · match stats · Germany

38.9 Possession 61.1

7 Shots 11

3 On Target 3

3 Corners 2

15 Fouls 10

1 Offsides 0

2 Saves 1

3 Yellows 1

0 Reds 0

What the model expected

Pre-match Elo: Ecuador 1816, Germany 1989. The model priced this Ecuador 17% / draw 21% / Germany 62%, most likely score 0–1. Reality had other plans. The result moves 36 Elo points from Germany to Ecuador — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline

2' GOALGoal! Ecuador 0, Germany 1. Leroy Sané (Germany) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Florian Wirtz.

9' GOALGoal! Ecuador 1, Germany 1. Nilson Angulo (Ecuador) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Pedro Vite.

43' YELLOWPiero Hincapié (Ecuador) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.

44' YELLOWAleksandar Pavlovic (Germany) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.

45' SUBSubstitution, Germany. Angelo Stiller replaces Aleksandar Pavlovic.

50' YELLOWAlan Franco (Ecuador) is shown the yellow card.

60' SUBSubstitution, Germany. Deniz Undav replaces Kai Havertz.

60' SUBSubstitution, Germany. Malick Thiaw replaces Joshua Kimmich.

64' SUBSubstitution, Ecuador. Kevin Rodríguez replaces Enner Valencia.

64' SUBSubstitution, Ecuador. Ángelo Preciado replaces Alan Franco.

64' SUBSubstitution, Germany. Maximilian Beier replaces Felix Nmecha.

71' SUBSubstitution, Ecuador. Pervis Estupiñán replaces Piero Hincapié because of an injury.

73' SUBSubstitution, Germany. Pascal Groß replaces Florian Wirtz.

77' GOALGoal! Ecuador 2, Germany 1. Gonzalo Plata (Ecuador) left footed shot from very close range to the top right corner. Assisted by Kevin Rodríguez with a headed pass following a corner.

85' SUBSubstitution, Ecuador. Félix Torres replaces John Yeboah.

85' SUBSubstitution, Ecuador. Jordy Caicedo replaces Nilson Angulo because of an injury.

89' YELLOWGonzalo Plata (Ecuador) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.

Lineups

Ecuador

4-4-2

1Hernán Galíndez G
6Willian Pacho CD-L
4Joel Ordóñez CD-R
3Piero Hincapié LB
21Alan Franco RB
15Pedro Vite CM-L
23Moisés Caicedo CM-R
20Nilson Angulo LM
9John Yeboah RM
13Enner Valencia CF-L
19Gonzalo Plata CF-R

Subs: Kevin Rodríguez, Ángelo Preciado, Pervis Estupiñán, Félix Torres, Jordy Caicedo

Germany

3-4-2-1

1Manuel Neuer G
4Jonathan Tah CD
2Antonio Rüdiger CD-L
6Joshua Kimmich CD-R
5Aleksandar Pavlovic CM-L
23Felix Nmecha CM-R
22David Raum LM
19Leroy Sané RM
7Kai Havertz F
17Florian Wirtz CF-L
10Jamal Musiala CF-R

Subs: Angelo Stiller, Deniz Undav, Malick Thiaw, Maximilian Beier, Pascal Gross