Tunisia Hazem Mastouri 54′ · Netherlands Ellyes Skhiri 3′ (o.g.), Brian Brobbey 7′, Jan Paul van Hecke 62′
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · 68,391 attendance
The story
The favourite delivered: Netherlands (80% pre-match) beat Tunisia 3–1.
Expected goals race
TunisiaNetherlands● goal
Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.
Pre-match Elo: Tunisia 1693, Netherlands 2011. The model priced this Tunisia 7% / draw 13% / Netherlands 80%, most likely score 0–2. The model called it. The result moves 10 Elo points from Tunisia to Netherlands — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.
Timeline
3'GOALOwn Goal by Ellyes Skhiri, Tunisia. Tunisia 0, Netherlands 1.
7'GOALGoal! Tunisia 0, Netherlands 2. Brian Brobbey (Netherlands) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Virgil van Dijk with a headed pass following a set piece situation.
54'GOALGoal! Tunisia 1, Netherlands 2. Hazem Mastouri (Tunisia) header from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Hannibal Mejbri with a cross following a corner.
62'GOALGoal! Tunisia 1, Netherlands 3. Jan Paul van Hecke (Netherlands) header from the left side of the six yard box to the top right corner. Assisted by Tijjani Reijnders with a cross following a corner.