World Cup 2026

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Matchday 16 · Group G · 2026-06-26
New Zealand
xG 1.03
HT 0–11 – 5
Belgium
xG 7.94
New Zealand Elijah Just 84′  ·  Belgium Leandro Trossard 28′, Leandro Trossard 50′, Kevin De Bruyne 66′, Romelu Lukaku 86′, Alexis Saelemaekers 90+4′
BC Place · 52,497 attendance
The story

Belgium made a statement — a 5–1 dismantling of New Zealand. The decisive moment came late, in the 90th minute.

Expected goals race
1234567890′15′30′45′60′75′90′1.04Elijah Just 84′7.94Leandro Trossard 28′Leandro Trossard 50′Kevin De Bruyne 66′Romelu Lukaku 86′Alexis Saelemaekers 90′
New Zealand Belgium ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Youri Tielemans · 4′ · xG 0.07 · Shot Off TargetCharles De Ketelaere · 11′ · xG 0.42 · Shot Blocked? · 11′ · xG 0.40 · Shot Hit WoodworkBrandon Mechele · 12′ · xG 0.29 · Shot BlockedKevin De Bruyne · 12′ · xG 0.07 · Shot On TargetLeandro Trossard · 16′ · xG 0.15 · Shot BlockedJérémy Doku · 16′ · xG 0.15 · Shot On TargetLeandro Trossard · 19′ · xG 0.16 · Shot BlockedLeandro Trossard · 28′ · xG 0.95 · GoalHans Vanaken · 31′ · xG 0.43 · Shot BlockedJérémy Doku · 39′ · xG 0.11 · Shot Off TargetKevin De Bruyne · 42′ · xG 0.31 · Shot Off TargetCharles De Ketelaere · 43′ · xG 0.25 · Shot On TargetLeandro Trossard · 45′ · xG 0.08 · Shot BlockedHans Vanaken · 45'+2′ · xG 0.17 · Shot BlockedArthur Theate · 45'+2′ · xG 0.38 · Shot Off TargetTimothy Castagne · 45'+3′ · xG 0.13 · Shot Off TargetKevin De Bruyne · 47′ · xG 0.08 · Shot Off TargetLeandro Trossard · 50′ · xG 0.26 · Shot BlockedLeandro Trossard · 50′ · xG 0.34 · Goal - VolleyElijah Just · 54′ · xG 0.12 · Shot On TargetTim Payne · 55′ · xG 0.08 · Shot Off TargetJesse Randall · 59′ · xG 0.11 · Shot Off TargetArthur Theate · 60′ · xG 0.25 · Shot Off TargetKevin De Bruyne · 61′ · xG 0.08 · Shot BlockedArthur Theate · 62′ · xG 0.26 · Shot On TargetKevin De Bruyne · 62′ · xG 0.14 · Shot BlockedMatias Fernandez-Pardo · 65′ · xG 0.28 · Shot Off TargetKevin De Bruyne · 66′ · xG 0.23 · Shot BlockedKevin De Bruyne · 66′ · xG 0.13 · GoalMatias Fernandez-Pardo · 74′ · xG 0.23 · Shot BlockedAmadou Onana · 74′ · xG 0.07 · Shot BlockedElijah Just · 76′ · xG 0.24 · Shot BlockedTyler Bindon · 76′ · xG 0.25 · Shot Off TargetMaxim De Cuyper · 78′ · xG 0.10 · Shot Off TargetAlexis Saelemaekers · 80′ · xG 0.12 · Shot Off TargetElijah Just · 84′ · xG 0.23 · GoalRomelu Lukaku · 86′ · xG 0.50 · Goal - HeaderAmadou Onana · 90′ · xG 0.05 · Shot Off TargetMaxim De Cuyper · 90'+2′ · xG 0.10 · Shot On TargetArthur Theate · 90'+3′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetAlexis Saelemaekers · 90'+4′ · xG 0.17 · Goal
New Zealand (attacking →) Belgium (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
New Zealand  ·  match stats  ·  Belgium
45.5 Possession 54.5
6 Shots 35
2 On Target 10
5 Corners 8
10 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 1
5 Saves 1
2 Yellows 0
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
draw 16%Belgium 75%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: New Zealand 1655, Belgium 1930. The model priced this New Zealand 9% / draw 16% / Belgium 75%, most likely score 0–2. The model called it. The result moves 16 Elo points from New Zealand to Belgium — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
28' GOALGoal! New Zealand 0, Belgium 1. Leandro Trossard (Belgium) right footed shot from very close range to the bottom right corner following a corner.
45' SUBSubstitution, New Zealand. Ben Old replaces Ryan Thomas.
45' SUBSubstitution, New Zealand. Jesse Randall replaces Sarpreet Singh.
46' YELLOWMarko Stamenic (New Zealand) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
50' GOALGoal! New Zealand 0, Belgium 2. Leandro Trossard (Belgium) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the top left corner. Assisted by Hans Vanaken.
56' YELLOWElijah Just (New Zealand) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
56' SUBSubstitution, Belgium. Matias Fernandez-Pardo replaces Jérémy Doku.
64' SUBSubstitution, New Zealand. Michael Boxall replaces Tim Payne.
64' SUBSubstitution, New Zealand. Callum McCowatt replaces Joe Bell.
66' GOALGoal! New Zealand 0, Belgium 3. Kevin De Bruyne (Belgium) left footed shot from outside the box to the bottom right corner.
72' SUBSubstitution, Belgium. Alexis Saelemaekers replaces Leandro Trossard.
72' SUBSubstitution, Belgium. Amadou Onana replaces Kevin De Bruyne.
79' SUBSubstitution, New Zealand. Francis de Vries replaces Liberato Cacace.
84' GOALGoal! New Zealand 1, Belgium 3. Elijah Just (New Zealand) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the high centre of the goal following a corner.
85' SUBSubstitution, Belgium. Romelu Lukaku replaces Charles De Ketelaere.
85' SUBSubstitution, Belgium. Nicolas Raskin replaces Youri Tielemans.
86' GOALGoal! New Zealand 1, Belgium 4. Romelu Lukaku (Belgium) header from very close range to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Nicolas Raskin with a cross.
90'+4' GOALGoal! New Zealand 1, Belgium 5. Alexis Saelemaekers (Belgium) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Romelu Lukaku following a fast break.
Lineups
New Zealand
4-2-3-1
  • 1Max Crocombe G
  • 4Tyler Bindon CD-L
  • 16Finn Surman CD-R
  • 13Liberato Cacace LB
  • 2Tim Payne RB
  • 23Ryan Thomas AM
  • 8Marko Stamenic LM
  • 6Joe Bell RM
  • 9Chris Wood F
  • 11Elijah Just AM-L
  • 10Sarpreet Singh AM-R
Subs: Ben Old, Jesse Randall, Michael Boxall, Callum McCowatt, Francis de Vries
Belgium
4-2-3-1
  • 1Thibaut Courtois G
  • 3Arthur Theate CD-L
  • 4Brandon Mechele CD-R
  • 5Maxim De Cuyper LB
  • 21Timothy Castagne RB
  • 7Kevin De Bruyne AM
  • 20Hans Vanaken LM
  • 8Youri Tielemans RM
  • 17Charles De Ketelaere F
  • 10Leandro Trossard AM-L
  • 11Jérémy Doku AM-R
Subs: Matias Fernandez-Pardo, Alexis Saelemaekers, Amadou Onana, Romelu Lukaku, Nicolas Raskin
← Fixtures, table & predictions

Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).