World Cup 2026

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Matchday 15 · Group F · 2026-06-25
Japan
xG 1.56
HT 0–01 – 1
Sweden
xG 2.08
Japan Daizen Maeda 56′  ·  Sweden Anthony Elanga 62′
AT&T Stadium · 70,137 attendance
The story

A 1–1 draw — the model had that at 24%.

Expected goals race
0.511.520′15′30′45′60′75′90′1.56Daizen Maeda 56′2.08Anthony Elanga 62′
Japan Sweden ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Alexander Bernhardsson · 6′ · xG 0.12 · Shot On TargetRitsu Doan · 15′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedDaizen Maeda · 22′ · xG 0.26 · Shot Off TargetYukinari Sugawara · 40′ · xG 0.04 · Shot On TargetKeito Nakamura · 45′ · xG 0.16 · Shot On TargetViktor Gyökeres · 45'+3′ · xG 0.07 · Shot BlockedAo Tanaka · 48′ · xG 0.09 · Shot Off TargetGustaf Lagerbielke · 50′ · xG 0.29 · Shot Off TargetAyase Ueda · 52′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedDaizen Maeda · 56′ · xG 0.40 · GoalAnthony Elanga · 62′ · xG 0.06 · GoalAlexander Isak · 65′ · xG 0.12 · Shot On TargetDaniel Svensson · 78′ · xG 0.08 · Shot BlockedVictor Lindelöf · 79′ · xG 0.49 · Shot Off TargetKen Sema · 79′ · xG 0.18 · Shot BlockedGustaf Lagerbielke · 81′ · xG 0.17 · Shot Off TargetKoki Ogawa · 83′ · xG 0.42 · Shot Off TargetAnthony Elanga · 90'+3′ · xG 0.17 · Shot On TargetAlexander Isak · 90'+4′ · xG 0.32 · Shot Blocked
Japan (attacking →) Sweden (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Japan  ·  match stats  ·  Sweden
52.3 Possession 47.7
8 Shots 11
3 On Target 5
2 Corners 8
20 Fouls 11
3 Offsides 2
4 Saves 2
1 Yellows 2
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Japan 51%draw 24%Sweden 24%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Japan 1913, Sweden 1813. The model priced this Japan 51% / draw 24% / Sweden 24%, most likely score 1–1. Reality had other plans. The result moves 7 Elo points from Japan to Sweden — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
32' YELLOWIsak Hien (Sweden) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
37' SUBSubstitution, Sweden. Lucas Bergvall replaces Isak Hien because of an injury.
39' SUBSubstitution, Japan. Shogo Taniguchi replaces Ko Itakura.
56' GOALGoal! Japan 1, Sweden 0. Daizen Maeda (Japan) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Ritsu Doan with a through ball.
62' GOALGoal! Japan 1, Sweden 1. Anthony Elanga (Sweden) left footed shot from outside the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Viktor Gyökeres.
66' SUBSubstitution, Japan. Koki Ogawa replaces Ayase Ueda.
67' SUBSubstitution, Japan. Junya Ito replaces Ritsu Doan.
75' SUBSubstitution, Sweden. Daniel Svensson replaces Alexander Bernhardsson.
75' SUBSubstitution, Sweden. Ken Sema replaces Elliot Stroud.
75' SUBSubstitution, Japan. Yuto Nagatomo replaces Keito Nakamura.
75' SUBSubstitution, Japan. Tsuyoshi Watanabe replaces Ayumu Seko.
77' YELLOWShogo Taniguchi (Japan) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
85' YELLOWViktor Gyökeres (Sweden) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
87' SUBSubstitution, Sweden. Carl Starfelt replaces Victor Lindelöf because of an injury.
88' SUBSubstitution, Sweden. Benjamin Nygren replaces Gabriel Gudmundsson.
Lineups
Japan
3-4-2-1
  • 1Zion Suzuki G
  • 4Kou Itakura CD
  • 21Hiroki Ito CD-L
  • 20Ayumu Seko CD-R
  • 15Daichi Kamada CM-L
  • 7Ao Tanaka CM-R
  • 13Keito Nakamura LM
  • 2Yukinari Sugawara RM
  • 18Ayase Ueda F
  • 11Daizen Maeda CF-L
  • 10Ritsu Doan CF-R
Subs: Shogo Taniguchi, Koki Ogawa, Junya Ito, Yuto Nagatomo, Tsuyoshi Watanabe
Sweden
3-4-3
  • 1Jacob Widell Zetterström G
  • 4Isak Hien CD
  • 5Gabriel Gudmundsson CD-L
  • 2Gustaf Lagerbielke CD-R
  • 18Yasin Ayari CM-L
  • 3Victor Lindelöf CM-R
  • 24Elliot Stroud LM
  • 21Alexander Bernhardsson RM
  • 17Viktor Gyökeres F
  • 9Alexander Isak CF-L
  • 11Anthony Elanga CF-R
Subs: Lucas Bergvall, Daniel Svensson, Ken Sema, Carl Starfelt, Benjamin Nygren
← Fixtures, table & predictions

Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).