Netherlands Cody Gakpo 72′ · Morocco Issa Diop 90+1′
Estadio BBVA · 51,243 attendance
The story
A genuine shock — the model gave Morocco just 28% before kick-off, and they beat Netherlands on penalties anyway. The decisive moment came late, in the 90th minute.
Expected goals race
NetherlandsMorocco● goal
Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.
Pre-match Elo: Netherlands 2022, Morocco 1950. The model priced this Netherlands 47% / draw 25% / Morocco 28%, most likely score 1–1. A plausible-but-not-favoured outcome. The result moves 30 Elo points from Netherlands to Morocco — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.
Timeline
47'YELLOWIssa Diop (Morocco) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
71'SUBSubstitution, Netherlands. Wout Weghorst replaces Brian Brobbey.
72'GOALGoal! Netherlands 1, Morocco 0. Cody Gakpo (Netherlands) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Crysencio Summerville.
75'SUBSubstitution, Morocco. Anass Salah-Eddine replaces Chadi Riad because of an injury.
86'SUBSubstitution, Netherlands. Jorrel Hato replaces Micky van de Ven.
86'SUBSubstitution, Netherlands. Quinten Timber replaces Ryan Gravenberch.
87'SUBSubstitution, Morocco. Chemsdine Talbi replaces Bilal El Khannouss.
90'+1'GOALGoal! Netherlands 1, Morocco 1. Issa Diop (Morocco) header from the centre of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Chemsdine Talbi with a cross.
110'SUBSubstitution, Netherlands. Marten de Roon replaces Frenkie de Jong.