Matchday 5 · Group H · 2026-06-15
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · 67,640 attendance
Expected goals race
1 2 3 4 5 6 0′ 15′ 30′ 45′ 60′ 75′ 90′ 5.96 0.64
● goal
Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.
Shot map
Pedri · 15′ · xG 0.08 · Shot On Target Fabián Ruiz · 19′ · xG 0.09 · Shot Off Target Pau Cubarsí · 20′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Blocked Steven Moreira · 27′ · xG 0.09 · Shot Blocked Gavi · 29′ · xG 0.15 · Shot Blocked Marc Cucurella · 29′ · xG 0.11 · Shot Off Target Dailon Livramento · 35′ · xG 0.01 · Shot Off Target Jovane Cabral · 38′ · xG 0.05 · Shot Off Target ? · 39′ · xG 0.76 · Shot Hit Woodwork Mikel Oyarzabal · 39′ · xG 0.28 · Shot On Target Ferran Torres · 40′ · xG 0.50 · Shot Blocked ? · 40′ · xG 0.00 · Shot Blocked Fabián Ruiz · 41′ · xG 0.08 · Shot Off Target Ferran Torres · 45′ · xG 0.28 · Shot On Target Aymeric Laporte · 45'+2′ · xG 0.29 · Shot On Target Rodri · 45'+3′ · xG 0.31 · Shot Blocked ? · 45'+3′ · xG 0.00 · Shot Blocked Mikel Oyarzabal · 45'+4′ · xG 0.40 · Shot Off Target Mikel Oyarzabal · 48′ · xG 0.28 · Shot Off Target Fabián Ruiz · 48′ · xG 0.05 · Shot Off Target Fabián Ruiz · 51′ · xG 0.11 · Shot Off Target Fabián Ruiz · 56′ · xG 0.29 · Shot On Target Aymeric Laporte · 58′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off Target Mikel Merino · 73′ · xG 0.36 · Shot On Target Ferran Torres · 75′ · xG 0.16 · Shot Blocked Pedri · 78′ · xG 0.10 · Shot Blocked Marc Cucurella · 82′ · xG 0.28 · Shot On Target Rodri · 85′ · xG 0.09 · Shot Off Target Mikel Oyarzabal · 88′ · xG 0.27 · Shot Blocked Kevin Pina · 90′ · xG 0.05 · Shot Blocked Diney Borges · 90'+1′ · xG 0.39 · Shot On Target Lamine Yamal · 90'+2′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Blocked Ryan Mendes · 90'+4′ · xG 0.05 · Shot Off Target Lamine Yamal · 90'+5′ · xG 0.14 · Shot Blocked Mikel Oyarzabal · 90'+5′ · xG 0.31 · Shot Off Target
size = xG · star = goal
What the model expected
Pre-match Elo: Spain 2100, Cape Verde 1650. The model priced this Spain 90% / draw 6% / Cape Verde 2% , most likely score 3–0. Reality had other plans. The result moves 22 Elo points from Spain to Cape Verde — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.
Timeline
16'
YELLOW Sidny Cabral (Cabo Verde) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
61'
SUB Substitution, Cabo Verde. Willy Semedo replaces Jovane Cabral because of an injury.
61'
SUB Substitution, Cabo Verde. Deroy Duarte replaces Laros Duarte.
61'
SUB Substitution, Cabo Verde. Nuno da Costa replaces Dailon Livramento.
71'
SUB Substitution, Spain. Mikel Merino replaces Fabián Ruiz.
71'
SUB Substitution, Spain. Lamine Yamal replaces Gavi.
76'
SUB Substitution, Cabo Verde. João Paulo replaces Sidny Cabral.
79'
SUB Substitution, Cabo Verde. Telmo Arcanjo replaces Jamiro Monteiro.
81'
SUB Substitution, Spain. Dani Olmo replaces Ferran Torres.
87'
SUB Substitution, Spain. Nico Williams replaces Rodri.
90'+3'
YELLOW Pedri (Spain) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.