World Cup 2026

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Matchday 2 · Group B · 2026-06-12
Canada
xG 3.46
HT 0–11 – 1
Bosnia & Herzegovina
xG 1.92
Canada Cyle Larin 78′  ·  Bosnia & Herzegovina Jovo Lukić 21′
BMO Field · 43,002 attendance
The story

A 1–1 draw — the model had that at 25%.

Expected goals race
1230′15′30′45′60′75′90′3.46Cyle Larin 78′1.92Jovo Lukic 21′
Canada Bosnia & Herzegovina ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Amar Memic · 3′ · xG 0.27 · Shot Off TargetJovo Lukic · 5′ · xG 0.17 · Shot Off TargetJovo Lukic · 13′ · xG 0.16 · Shot On TargetJonathan David · 17′ · xG 0.27 · Shot On TargetJovo Lukic · 21′ · xG 0.63 · Goal - HeaderJonathan David · 28′ · xG 0.20 · Shot BlockedIsmaël Koné · 30′ · xG 0.14 · Shot BlockedTani Oluwaseyi · 32′ · xG 0.14 · Shot Off TargetTani Oluwaseyi · 38′ · xG 0.50 · Shot BlockedJonathan David · 38′ · xG 0.29 · Shot BlockedBenjamin Tahirovic · 44′ · xG 0.08 · Shot Off TargetAlistair Johnston · 45'+3′ · xG 0.17 · Shot BlockedDerek Cornelius · 45'+4′ · xG 0.28 · Shot Off TargetErmedin Demirovic · 46′ · xG 0.06 · Shot On TargetRichie Laryea · 53′ · xG 0.24 · Shot BlockedTarik Muharemovic · 59′ · xG 0.47 · Shot Off TargetStephen Eustaquio · 65′ · xG 0.08 · Shot Off TargetTani Oluwaseyi · 66′ · xG 0.35 · Shot BlockedCyle Larin · 78′ · xG 0.23 · GoalPromise David · 81′ · xG 0.09 · Shot Off TargetDzenis Burnic · 85′ · xG 0.08 · Shot BlockedCyle Larin · 90'+6′ · xG 0.48 · Shot Blocked
Canada (attacking →) Bosnia & Herzegovina (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Canada  ·  match stats  ·  Bosnia & Herzegovina
61.1 Possession 38.9
13 Shots 8
4 On Target 3
9 Corners 4
10 Fouls 20
1 Offsides 0
2 Saves 1
2 Yellows 3
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Canada 48%draw 25%Bosnia & Herzegovina 27%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Canada 1790, Bosnia & Herzegovina 1760. The model priced this Canada 48% / draw 25% / Bosnia & Herzegovina 27%, most likely score 1–1. Reality had other plans. The result moves 6 Elo points from Canada to Bosnia & Herzegovina — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
11' YELLOWAlistair Johnston (Canada) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
21' GOALGoal! Canada 0, Bosnia and Herzegovina 1. Jovo Lukic (Bosnia and Herzegovina) header from very close range to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Sead Kolasinac with a headed pass following a corner.
45' YELLOWErmedin Demirovic (Bosnia and Herzegovina) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
45'+1' YELLOWJovo Lukic (Bosnia and Herzegovina) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
53' YELLOWLuc De Fougerolles (Canada) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
61' SUBSubstitution, Canada. Jacob Shaffelburg replaces Liam Millar.
61' SUBSubstitution, Canada. Promise David replaces Jonathan David.
61' SUBSubstitution, Canada. Ali Ahmed replaces Tajon Buchanan.
62' SUBSubstitution, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Samed Bazdar replaces Jovo Lukic.
62' SUBSubstitution, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Armin Gigovic replaces Ivan Basic.
74' SUBSubstitution, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Ivan Sunjic replaces Esmir Bajraktarevic.
74' SUBSubstitution, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kerim Alajbegovic replaces Amar Memic.
76' SUBSubstitution, Canada. Cyle Larin replaces Tani Oluwaseyi.
78' GOALGoal! Canada 1, Bosnia and Herzegovina 1. Cyle Larin (Canada) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Promise David.
84' SUBSubstitution, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Dzenis Burnic replaces Sead Kolasinac because of an injury.
90'+1' SUBSubstitution, Canada. Jonathan Osorio replaces Stephen Eustaquio.
90'+3' YELLOWNikola Katic (Bosnia and Herzegovina) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
Lineups
Canada
4-4-2
  • 16Maxime Crépeau G
  • 13Derek Cornelius CD-L
  • 4Luc de Fougerolles CD-R
  • 22Richie Laryea LB
  • 2Alistair Johnston RB
  • 7Stephen Eustáquio CM-L
  • 8Ismaël Koné CM-R
  • 11Liam Millar LM
  • 17Tajon Buchanan RM
  • 12Tani Oluwaseyi CF-L
  • 10Jonathan David CF-R
Subs: Jacob Shaffelburg, Promise David, Ali Ahmed, Cyle Larin, Jonathan Osorio
Bosnia-Herzegovina
4-4-2
  • 1Nikola Vasilj G
  • 4Tarik Muharemovic CD-L
  • 18Nikola Katic CD-R
  • 5Sead Kolasinac LB
  • 7Amar Dedic RB
  • 13Ivan Basic CM-L
  • 6Benjamin Tahirovic CM-R
  • 15Amar Memic LM
  • 20Esmir Bajraktarevic RM
  • 25Jovo Lukic CF-L
  • 10Ermedin Demirovic CF-R
Subs: Samed Bazdar, Armin Gigovic, Ivan Sunjic, Kerim Alajbegovic, Dzenis Burnic
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).