Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.
Shot map
England (attacking →)Ghana (attacking ←)size = xG · star = goal
England · match stats · Ghana
78.9Possession21.1
19Shots2
3On Target1
9Corners2
14Fouls24
2Offsides2
0Saves3
1Yellows1
0Reds0
What the model expected
Pre-match Elo: England 2066, Ghana 1774. The model priced this England 77% / draw 15% / Ghana 8%, most likely score 2–0. Reality had other plans. The result moves 17 Elo points from England to Ghana — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.
Timeline
41'YELLOWDeclan Rice (England) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
60'YELLOWIñaki Williams (Ghana) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
65'SUBSubstitution, England. Bukayo Saka replaces Anthony Gordon.