World Cup 2026

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Round of 32 · Knockout · 2026-07-01
Belgium
xG 3.84
AET · HT 0–13 – 2
Senegal
xG 5.15
Belgium Romelu Lukaku 86′, Youri Tielemans 89′, Youri Tielemans 120+5′ (pen.)  ·  Senegal Habib Diarra 25′, Ismaïla Sarr 51′
Lumen Field · 66,925 attendance
The story

The favourite delivered: Belgium (54% pre-match) beat Senegal 3–2 after extra time. The xG race tells a different story though: Senegal created more (5.15 vs 3.84) and will feel hard done by. The decisive moment came late, in the 120th minute.

Expected goals race
123450′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′120′3.84Romelu Lukaku 86′Youri Tielemans 89′Youri Tielemans 120′5.15Habib Diarra 24′Ismaïla Sarr 51′
Belgium Senegal ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Leandro Trossard · 9′ · xG 0.12 · Shot On Target? · 13′ · xG 0.82 · Shot Hit WoodworkIsmaïla Sarr · 13′ · xG 0.68 · Shot Off TargetIdrissa Gueye · 17′ · xG 0.12 · Shot On TargetKevin De Bruyne · 18′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off Target? · 24′ · xG 0.33 · Shot Hit WoodworkHabib Diarra · 24′ · xG 0.73 · GoalSadio Mané · 36′ · xG 0.18 · Shot On TargetMaxim De Cuyper · 45′ · xG 0.06 · Shot On TargetPape Gueye · 45'+1′ · xG 0.14 · Shot Off TargetMaxim De Cuyper · 45'+5′ · xG 0.06 · Shot BlockedKevin De Bruyne · 45'+6′ · xG 0.10 · Shot Off TargetPape Gueye · 46′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedIliman Ndiaye · 46′ · xG 0.20 · Shot Off TargetHabib Diarra · 51′ · xG 0.41 · Shot Off TargetIsmaïla Sarr · 51′ · xG 0.35 · GoalBrandon Mechele · 56′ · xG 0.23 · Shot Off TargetDodi Lukébakio · 60′ · xG 0.18 · Shot BlockedYouri Tielemans · 60′ · xG 0.15 · Shot BlockedDodi Lukébakio · 62′ · xG 0.21 · Shot Off TargetArthur Theate · 77′ · xG 0.05 · Shot BlockedDodi Lukébakio · 78′ · xG 0.11 · Shot Off TargetTimothy Castagne · 83′ · xG 0.28 · Shot Off TargetYouri Tielemans · 84′ · xG 0.12 · Shot Off TargetRomelu Lukaku · 86′ · xG 0.57 · GoalIbrahim Mbaye · 88′ · xG 0.13 · Shot Off TargetYouri Tielemans · 89′ · xG 0.35 · Goal - HeaderThomas Meunier · 90'+3′ · xG 0.08 · Shot Off TargetIdrissa Gueye · 90'+6′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetLeandro Trossard · 104′ · xG 0.11 · Shot BlockedNicolas Raskin · 107′ · xG 0.25 · Shot Off TargetIbrahim Mbaye · 109′ · xG 0.34 · Shot Off TargetBara Sapoko Ndiaye · 113′ · xG 0.07 · Shot On TargetYouri Tielemans · 120'+5′ · xG 0.76 · Penalty - ScoredPape Matar Sarr · 120'+7′ · xG 0.08 · Shot Off TargetPathé Ciss · 120'+11′ · xG 0.15 · Shot BlockedIsmaïla Sarr · 120'+11′ · xG 0.11 · Shot BlockedPape Matar Sarr · 120'+12′ · xG 0.15 · Shot Off Target
Belgium (attacking →) Senegal (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Belgium  ·  match stats  ·  Senegal
52.3 Possession 47.7
19 Shots 19
5 On Target 5
4 Corners 2
22 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 2
3 Saves 3
1 Yellows 1
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Belgium 54%draw 24%Senegal 23%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Belgium 1946, Senegal 1829. The model priced this Belgium 54% / draw 24% / Senegal 23%, most likely score 1–1. The model called it. The result moves 17 Elo points from Senegal to Belgium — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
24' GOALGoal! Belgium 0, Senegal 1. Habib Diarra (Senegal) right footed shot from very close range to the centre of the goal.
45' SUBSubstitution, Belgium. Romelu Lukaku replaces Charles De Ketelaere.
51' GOALGoal! Belgium 0, Senegal 2. Ismaïla Sarr (Senegal) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Moussa Niakhaté with a through ball.
56' SUBSubstitution, Belgium. Dodi Lukébakio replaces Jérémy Doku.
56' SUBSubstitution, Belgium. Nicolas Raskin replaces Kevin De Bruyne.
63' SUBSubstitution, Belgium. Diego Moreira replaces Hans Vanaken.
64' YELLOWBrandon Mechele (Belgium) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
66' SUBSubstitution, Senegal. Lamine Camara replaces Pape Gueye.
67' YELLOWLamine Camara (Senegal) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
73' SUBSubstitution, Senegal. Ibrahim Mbaye replaces Iliman Ndiaye.
73' SUBSubstitution, Senegal. Pape Matar Sarr replaces Habib Diarra.
78' SUBSubstitution, Belgium. Thomas Meunier replaces Maxim De Cuyper.
86' GOALGoal! Belgium 1, Senegal 2. Romelu Lukaku (Belgium) right footed shot from the right side of the six yard box to the high centre of the goal. Assisted by Thomas Meunier with a cross.
89' GOALGoal! Belgium 2, Senegal 2. Youri Tielemans (Belgium) header from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Leandro Trossard.
94' SUBSubstitution, Senegal. Nicolas Jackson replaces Sadio Mané.
94' SUBSubstitution, Senegal. El Hadji Malick Diouf replaces Ismail Jakobs.
96' SUBSubstitution, Senegal. Bara Sapoko Ndiaye replaces Idrissa Gueye.
109' SUBSubstitution, Belgium. Amadou Onana replaces Leandro Trossard.
120'+5' PEN GOALGoal! Belgium 3, Senegal 2. Youri Tielemans (Belgium) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the top right corner.
Lineups
Belgium
4-2-3-1
  • 1Thibaut Courtois G
  • 3Arthur Theate CD-L
  • 4Brandon Mechele CD-R
  • 5Maxim De Cuyper LB
  • 21Timothy Castagne RB
  • 7Kevin De Bruyne AM
  • 20Hans Vanaken LM
  • 8Youri Tielemans RM
  • 17Charles De Ketelaere F
  • 11Jérémy Doku AM-L
  • 10Leandro Trossard AM-R
Subs: Romelu Lukaku, Dodi Lukébakio, Nicolas Raskin, Diego Moreira, Thomas Meunier, Amadou Onana
Senegal
4-3-3
  • 23Mory Diaw G
  • 19Moussa Niakhaté CD-L
  • 6Pathé Ciss CD-R
  • 14Ismail Jakobs LB
  • 15Krépin Diatta RB
  • 5Idrissa Gueye CM
  • 26Pape Gueye LM
  • 21Habib Diarra RM
  • 18Ismaïla Sarr F
  • 10Sadio Mané LF
  • 13Iliman Ndiaye RF
Subs: Lamine Camara, Ibrahim Mbaye, Pape Matar Sarr, Nicolas Jackson, El Hadji Malick Diouf, Bara Sapoko Ndiaye
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).