World Cup 2026

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Matchday 8 · Group A · 2026-06-18
Czech Republic
xG 2.87
HT 1–01 – 1
South Africa
xG 2.54
Czech Republic Michal Sadílek 6′  ·  South Africa Teboho Mokoena 83′ (pen.)
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · 67,442 attendance
The story

A 1–1 draw — the model had that at 25%.

Expected goals race
1230′15′30′45′60′75′90′2.87Michal Sadílek 6′2.54Teboho Mokoena 83′
Czech Republic South Africa ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Patrik Schick · 1′ · xG 0.23 · Shot Off TargetLadislav Krejcí · 5′ · xG 0.29 · Shot Off TargetMichal Sadílek · 5′ · xG 0.17 · Shot Off TargetMichal Sadílek · 6′ · xG 0.26 · GoalOswin Appollis · 12′ · xG 0.06 · Shot BlockedAubrey Modiba · 13′ · xG 0.03 · Shot Off TargetIqraam Rayners · 22′ · xG 0.26 · Shot Blocked? · 22′ · xG 0.00 · Shot BlockedAdam Hlozek · 41′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetTeboho Mokoena · 45′ · xG 0.05 · Shot Off TargetThapelo Maseko · 45'+4′ · xG 0.34 · Shot BlockedVladimír Darida · 47′ · xG 0.25 · Shot BlockedLukás Cerv · 47′ · xG 0.06 · Shot On TargetPatrik Schick · 48′ · xG 0.30 · Shot On TargetMbekezeli Mbokazi · 50′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetLadislav Krejcí · 53′ · xG 0.23 · Shot Off TargetThapelo Maseko · 54′ · xG 0.09 · Shot Off TargetMichal Sadílek · 59′ · xG 0.22 · Shot BlockedAubrey Modiba · 60′ · xG 0.04 · Shot Off TargetLadislav Krejcí · 68′ · xG 0.28 · Shot BlockedEvidence Makgopa · 74′ · xG 0.14 · Shot On TargetMbekezeli Mbokazi · 76′ · xG 0.05 · Shot BlockedThapelo Maseko · 81′ · xG 0.08 · Shot BlockedTeboho Mokoena · 83′ · xG 0.76 · Penalty - ScoredThalente Mbatha · 86′ · xG 0.06 · Shot BlockedRelebohile Mofokeng · 88′ · xG 0.10 · Shot On TargetLadislav Krejcí · 90′ · xG 0.29 · Shot Off TargetJaroslav Zeleny · 90'+1′ · xG 0.15 · Shot Off TargetLukás Provod · 90'+4′ · xG 0.08 · Shot Off TargetEvidence Makgopa · 90'+6′ · xG 0.14 · Shot On TargetAubrey Modiba · 90'+7′ · xG 0.22 · Shot BlockedMbekezeli Mbokazi · 90'+7′ · xG 0.05 · Shot Blocked
Czech Republic (attacking →) South Africa (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Czech Republic  ·  match stats  ·  South Africa
38.3 Possession 61.7
14 Shots 17
3 On Target 4
5 Corners 5
12 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 3
3 Saves 2
1 Yellows 2
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Czech Republic 44%draw 25%South Africa 31%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Czech Republic 1749, South Africa 1701. The model priced this Czech Republic 44% / draw 25% / South Africa 31%, most likely score 1–1. A plausible-but-not-favoured outcome. The result moves 3 Elo points from Czech Republic to South Africa — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
6' GOALGoal! Czechia 1, South Africa 0. Michal Sadílek (Czechia) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Alexandr Sojka.
33' YELLOWTeboho Mokoena (South Africa) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
40' YELLOWThalente Mbatha (South Africa) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
45' SUBSubstitution, South Africa. Relebohile Mofokeng replaces Jayden Adams.
55' SUBSubstitution, Czechia. Pavel Sulc replaces Vladimír Darida.
55' SUBSubstitution, Czechia. Jaroslav Zeleny replaces Alexandr Sojka.
66' SUBSubstitution, South Africa. Evidence Makgopa replaces Iqraam Rayners.
67' SUBSubstitution, Czechia. Tomás Soucek replaces Michal Sadílek.
67' SUBSubstitution, Czechia. Lukás Provod replaces Adam Hlozek.
75' YELLOWLadislav Krejcí (Czechia) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
78' SUBSubstitution, Czechia. David Zima replaces Lukás Cerv.
83' PEN GOALGoal! Czechia 1, South Africa 1. Teboho Mokoena (South Africa) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the bottom left corner.
84' SUBSubstitution, South Africa. Kamogelo Sebelebele replaces Thapelo Maseko.
Lineups
Czechia
3-5-2
  • 1Matej Kovár G
  • 4Robin Hranác CD
  • 7Ladislav Krejcí CD-L
  • 3Tomás Holes CD-R
  • 18Michal Sadílek CM-L
  • 8Vladimír Darida CM-R
  • 12Lukás Cerv AM
  • 24Alexandr Sojka LM
  • 5Vladimír Coufal RM
  • 9Adam Hlozek CF-L
  • 10Patrik Schick CF-R
Subs: Pavel Sulc, Jaroslav Zelený, Tomás Soucek, Lukás Provod, David Zima
South Africa
4-3-3
  • 1Ronwen Williams G
  • 14Mbekezeli Mbokazi CD-L
  • 21Ime Okon CD-R
  • 6Aubrey Modiba LB
  • 20Khuliso Mudau RB
  • 4Teboho Mokoena CM
  • 23Jayden Adams LM
  • 5Thalente Mbatha RM
  • 15Iqraam Rayners F
  • 7Oswin Appollis LF
  • 12Thapelo Maseko RF
Subs: Relebohile Mofokeng, Evidence Makgopa, Kamogelo Sebelebele
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).