World Cup 2026

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Round of 32 · Knockout · 2026-06-29
Germany
xG 8.54
PENS 3–4 · AET · HT 0–11 – 1
Paraguay
xG 5.95
Germany Kai Havertz 54′  ·  Paraguay Julio Enciso 42′
Gillette Stadium · 63,945 attendance
The story

A genuine shock — the model gave Paraguay just 17% before kick-off, and they beat Germany on penalties anyway. The xG race tells a different story though: Germany created more (8.54 vs 5.95) and will feel hard done by.

Expected goals race
1234567890′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′120′8.54Kai Havertz 54′120′120′120′5.95Julio Enciso 42′120′120′120′120′
Germany Paraguay ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Julio Enciso · 1′ · xG 0.09 · Shot BlockedJúnior Alonso · 2′ · xG 0.40 · Shot On TargetDeniz Undav · 6′ · xG 0.15 · Shot Off TargetFlorian Wirtz · 8′ · xG 0.11 · Shot Off TargetKai Havertz · 33′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedJulio Enciso · 42′ · xG 0.25 · Goal - HeaderJoshua Kimmich · 45′ · xG 0.11 · Shot Off TargetJoshua Kimmich · 45'+3′ · xG 0.15 · Shot Off TargetJulio Enciso · 50′ · xG 0.17 · Shot Off TargetKai Havertz · 54′ · xG 0.22 · Goal - HeaderLeon Goretzka · 56′ · xG 0.29 · Shot BlockedAleksandar Pavlovic · 56′ · xG 0.10 · Shot BlockedGustavo Caballero · 59′ · xG 0.25 · Shot On TargetLeroy Sané · 66′ · xG 0.06 · Shot BlockedGustavo Gómez · 70′ · xG 0.16 · Shot Off TargetKai Havertz · 78′ · xG 0.35 · Shot On TargetFlorian Wirtz · 80′ · xG 0.06 · Shot BlockedLeon Goretzka · 86′ · xG 0.28 · Shot Off TargetJoshua Kimmich · 90'+1′ · xG 0.09 · Shot BlockedJonathan Tah · 90'+2′ · xG 0.18 · Shot On TargetMiguel Almirón · 90'+3′ · xG 0.07 · Shot BlockedNick Woltemade · 93′ · xG 0.23 · Shot BlockedJoshua Kimmich · 93′ · xG 0.08 · Shot BlockedNick Woltemade · 97′ · xG 0.42 · Shot BlockedKai Havertz · 105'+4′ · xG 0.44 · Shot On TargetJoshua Kimmich · 111′ · xG 0.03 · Shot BlockedWaldemar Anton · 119′ · xG 0.49 · Shot On TargetNadiem Amiri · 120'+1′ · xG 0.05 · Shot Off TargetKai Havertz · 120′ · xG 0.76 · Penalty - Saved? · 120′ · xG 0.76 · Penalty - Scored? · 120′ · xG 0.76 · Penalty - Scored? · 120′ · xG 0.76 · Penalty - Scored? · 120′ · xG 0.76 · Penalty - Scored? · 120′ · xG 0.76 · Penalty - ScoredNick Woltemade · 120′ · xG 0.76 · Penalty - SavedAntonio Sanabria · 120′ · xG 0.76 · Penalty - Missed? · 120′ · xG 0.76 · Penalty - ScoredFabián Balbuena · 120′ · xG 0.76 · Penalty - SavedJonathan Tah · 120′ · xG 0.76 · Penalty - Missed? · 120′ · xG 0.76 · Penalty - Scored
Germany (attacking →) Paraguay (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Germany  ·  match stats  ·  Paraguay
75.6 Possession 24.4
21 Shots 7
6 On Target 3
16 Corners 6
18 Fouls 12
4 Offsides 1
2 Saves 6
2 Yellows 2
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Germany 62%draw 21%Paraguay 17%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Germany 1952, Paraguay 1780. The model priced this Germany 62% / draw 21% / Paraguay 17%, most likely score 1–0. Reality had other plans. The result moves 36 Elo points from Germany to Paraguay — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
42' GOALGoal! Germany 0, Paraguay 1. Julio Enciso (Paraguay) header from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Matías Galarza with a cross following a corner.
45' SUBSubstitution, Germany. Leon Goretzka replaces Felix Nmecha.
54' GOALGoal! Germany 1, Paraguay 1. Kai Havertz (Germany) header from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Florian Wirtz with a cross.
55' SUBSubstitution, Paraguay. Gustavo Caballero replaces Gabriel Ávalos.
57' SUBSubstitution, Paraguay. Mauricio replaces Julio Enciso because of an injury.
63' SUBSubstitution, Germany. Jamal Musiala replaces Deniz Undav.
65' YELLOWAndrés Cubas (Paraguay) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
79' SUBSubstitution, Germany. Waldemar Anton replaces Aleksandar Pavlovic.
88' SUBSubstitution, Germany. Nick Woltemade replaces Leroy Sané.
90' SUBSubstitution, Paraguay. Gustavo Velázquez replaces Miguel Almirón.
99' SUBSubstitution, Paraguay. Braian Ojeda replaces Juan José Cáceres.
99' SUBSubstitution, Paraguay. Antonio Sanabria replaces Damián Bobadilla.
106' YELLOWKai Havertz (Germany) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
110' SUBSubstitution, Germany. Nadiem Amiri replaces Florian Wirtz.
110' SUBSubstitution, Germany. Malick Thiaw replaces Antonio Rüdiger.
115' YELLOWJamal Musiala (Germany) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
117' YELLOWMatías Galarza (Paraguay) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
120'+2' SUBSubstitution, Paraguay. Fabián Balbuena replaces Júnior Alonso.
Lineups
Germany
4-4-2
  • 1Manuel Neuer G
  • 2Antonio Rüdiger CD-L
  • 4Jonathan Tah CD-R
  • 18Nathaniel Brown LB
  • 6Joshua Kimmich RB
  • 5Aleksandar Pavlovic CM-L
  • 23Felix Nmecha CM-R
  • 17Florian Wirtz LM
  • 19Leroy Sané RM
  • 26Deniz Undav CF-L
  • 7Kai Havertz CF-R
Subs: Leon Goretzka, Jamal Musiala, Waldemar Anton, Nick Woltemade, Nadiem Amiri, Malick Thiaw
Paraguay
4-4-2
  • 12Orlando Gill G
  • 13José Canale CD-L
  • 15Gustavo Gómez CD-R
  • 6Júnior Alonso LB
  • 4Juan Jose Cáceres RB
  • 14Andrés Cubas CM-L
  • 16Damián Bobadilla CM-R
  • 23Matías Galarza LM
  • 10Miguel Almirón RM
  • 19Julio Enciso CF-L
  • 21Gabriel Ávalos CF-R
Subs: Gustavo Caballero, Maurício, Gustavo Velázquez, Braian Ojeda, Antonio Sanabria, Fabián Balbuena
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).