Germany Deniz Undav 68′, Deniz Undav 90+4′ · Ivory Coast Franck Kessié 30′
BMO Field · 43,036 attendance
The story
The favourite delivered: Germany (61% pre-match) beat Ivory Coast 2–1. The decisive moment came late, in the 90th minute.
Expected goals race
GermanyIvory Coast● goal
Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.
Pre-match Elo: Germany 1975, Ivory Coast 1811. The model priced this Germany 61% / draw 22% / Ivory Coast 18%, most likely score 1–0. The model called it. The result moves 14 Elo points from Ivory Coast to Germany — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.
Timeline
30'GOALGoal! Germany 0, Côte d'Ivoire 1. Franck Kessie (Côte d'Ivoire) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner.
45'SUBSubstitution, Germany. Antonio Rüdiger replaces Nico Schlotterbeck because of an injury.
60'SUBSubstitution, Germany. Deniz Undav replaces Jamal Musiala.
60'SUBSubstitution, Germany. Nadiem Amiri replaces Aleksandar Pavlovic.
68'GOALGoal! Germany 1, Côte d'Ivoire 1. Deniz Undav (Germany) left footed shot from very close range to the high centre of the goal. Assisted by Nadiem Amiri with a cross.
75'SUBSubstitution, Côte d'Ivoire. Seko Fofana replaces Ibrahim Sangaré.
75'SUBSubstitution, Côte d'Ivoire. Simon Adingra replaces Amad Diallo.
82'SUBSubstitution, Côte d'Ivoire. Guéla Doué replaces Wilfried Singo because of an injury.
85'SUBSubstitution, Côte d'Ivoire. Nicolas Pépé replaces Yan Diomande.
85'SUBSubstitution, Germany. Leon Goretzka replaces Kai Havertz.
90'+4'GOALGoal! Germany 2, Côte d'Ivoire 1. Deniz Undav (Germany) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Felix Nmecha with a through ball.
Lineups
Germany
4-2-3-1
1Manuel Neuer G
15Nico Schlotterbeck CD-L
4Jonathan Tah CD-R
18Nathaniel Brown LB
6Joshua Kimmich RB
10Jamal Musiala AM
5Aleksandar Pavlovic LM
23Felix Nmecha RM
7Kai Havertz F
17Florian Wirtz AM-L
19Leroy Sané AM-R
Subs: Antonio Rüdiger, Jamie Leweling, Deniz Undav, Nadiem Amiri, Leon Goretzka
Ivory Coast
4-1-4-1
1Yahia Fofana G
20Emmanuel Agbadou CD-L
7Odilon Kossounou CD-R
18Ibrahim Sangaré DM
3Ghislain Konan LB
5Wilfried Singo RB
26Christ Inao Oulaï CM-L
8Franck Kessié CM-R
11Yan Diomande LM
15Amad Diallo RM
9Ange-Yoan Bonny F
Subs: Evann Guessand, Seko Fofana, Simon Adingra, Guela Doué, Nicolas Pépé