Norway 3–2 Senegal — World Cup 2026

Matchday 12 · Group I · 2026-06-22

Norway

xG 3.30

HT 1–03 – 2

Senegal

xG 3.87

Norway Marcus Holmgren Pedersen 43′, Erling Haaland 48′, Erling Haaland 58′ · Senegal Ismaïla Sarr 53′, Ismaïla Sarr 90+3′

MetLife Stadium · 80,663 attendance

The story

A mild upset: Norway (44% pre-match) got past Senegal. The xG race tells a different story though: Senegal created more (3.87 vs 3.30) and will feel hard done by. The decisive moment came late, in the 90th minute.

Expected goals race

Norway Senegal ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map

Norway (attacking →) Senegal (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal

Norway · match stats · Senegal

41.7 Possession 58.3

13 Shots 16

7 On Target 4

5 Corners 4

13 Fouls 5

0 Offsides 4

2 Saves 3

0 Yellows 0

0 Reds 0

What the model expected

Pre-match Elo: Norway 1872, Senegal 1823. The model priced this Norway 44% / draw 25% / Senegal 31%, most likely score 1–1. A plausible-but-not-favoured outcome. The result moves 22 Elo points from Senegal to Norway — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline

13' SUBSubstitution, Norway. Marcus Pedersen replaces Julian Ryerson because of an injury.

43' GOALGoal! Norway 1, Senegal 0. Marcus Pedersen (Norway) right footed shot from the right side of the box to the high centre of the goal.

45' SUBSubstitution, Norway. Patrick Berg replaces Fredrik Aursnes.

48' GOALGoal! Norway 2, Senegal 0. Erling Haaland (Norway) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Martin Ødegaard with a through ball following a fast break.

53' GOALGoal! Norway 2, Senegal 1. Ismaïla Sarr (Senegal) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Sadio Mané.

54' SUBSubstitution, Senegal. Ismail Jakobs replaces El Hadji Malick Diouf.

54' SUBSubstitution, Senegal. Ibrahim Mbaye replaces Pape Gueye.

58' GOALGoal! Norway 3, Senegal 1. Erling Haaland (Norway) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the high centre of the goal. Assisted by Patrick Berg.

63' SUBSubstitution, Senegal. Mory Diaw replaces Édouard Mendy because of an injury.

63' SUBSubstitution, Senegal. Pathé Ciss replaces Lamine Camara.

71' SUBSubstitution, Norway. Andreas Schjelderup replaces Antonio Nusa.

72' SUBSubstitution, Senegal. Pape Matar Sarr replaces Kalidou Koulibaly.

84' SUBSubstitution, Norway. Oscar Bobb replaces Alexander Sørloth.

84' SUBSubstitution, Norway. Leo Østigård replaces Torbjørn Heggem because of an injury.

90'+3' GOALGoal! Norway 3, Senegal 2. Ismaïla Sarr (Senegal) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Nicolas Jackson.

Lineups

Norway

4-3-3

1Ørjan Nyland G
17Torbjørn Heggem CD-L
3Kristoffer Ajer CD-R
5David Møller Wolfe LB
26Julian Ryerson RB
8Sander Berge CM
14Fredrik Aursnes LM
10Martin Ødegaard RM
9Erling Haaland F
20Antonio Nusa LF
7Alexander Sørloth RF

Subs: Marcus Holmgren Pedersen, Patrick Berg, Andreas Schjelderup, Oscar Bobb, Leo Østigard

Senegal

4-2-3-1

16Édouard Mendy G
19Moussa Niakhaté CD-L
3Kalidou Koulibaly CD-R
25El Hadji Malick Diouf LB
15Krépin Diatta RB
8Lamine Camara AM
26Pape Gueye LM
5Idrissa Gueye RM
11Nicolas Jackson F
10Sadio Mané AM-L
18Ismaïla Sarr AM-R

Subs: Ismail Jakobs, Ibrahim Mbaye, Mory Diaw, Pathé Ciss, Pape Matar Sarr