A mild upset: Switzerland (34% pre-match) got past Colombia on penalties. The xG race tells a different story though: Colombia created more (6.29 vs 4.72) and will feel hard done by.
Expected goals race
SwitzerlandColombia● goal
Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.
Pre-match Elo: Switzerland 1924, Colombia 1950. The model priced this Switzerland 34% / draw 26% / Colombia 41%, most likely score 1–1. A plausible-but-not-favoured outcome. The result moves 27 Elo points from Colombia to Switzerland — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.