Sweden 5–1 Tunisia — World Cup 2026

Matchday 4 · Group F · 2026-06-14

Sweden

xG 2.62

HT 2–15 – 1

Tunisia

xG 0.86

Sweden Yasin Ayari 7′, Yasin Ayari 90+6′, Alexander Isak 30′, Viktor Gyökeres 59′, Mattias Svanberg 84′ · Tunisia Omar Rekik 43′

Estadio BBVA · 50,987 attendance

The story

A mild upset: Sweden (43% pre-match) got past Tunisia. The decisive moment came late, in the 90th minute.

Expected goals race

Sweden Tunisia ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map

Sweden (attacking →) Tunisia (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal

Sweden · match stats · Tunisia

48.7 Possession 51.3

13 Shots 6

7 On Target 2

4 Corners 2

10 Fouls 8

3 Offsides 6

1 Saves 1

0 Yellows 1

0 Reds 0

What the model expected

Pre-match Elo: Sweden 1800, Tunisia 1760. The model priced this Sweden 43% / draw 26% / Tunisia 32%, most likely score 1–1. A plausible-but-not-favoured outcome. The result moves 42 Elo points from Tunisia to Sweden — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline

7' GOALGoal! Sweden 1, Tunisia 0. Yasin Ayari (Sweden) right footed shot from outside the box to the top right corner.

30' GOALGoal! Sweden 2, Tunisia 0. Alexander Isak (Sweden) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Viktor Gyökeres following a fast break.

43' GOALGoal! Sweden 2, Tunisia 1. Omar Rekik (Tunisia) header from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Hannibal Mejbri with a cross.

54' YELLOWRani Khedira (Tunisia) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.

59' GOALGoal! Sweden 3, Tunisia 1. Viktor Gyökeres (Sweden) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Alexander Isak.

65' SUBSubstitution, Sweden. Elliot Stroud replaces Gabriel Gudmundsson because of an injury.

65' SUBSubstitution, Sweden. Lucas Bergvall replaces Benjamin Nygren.

72' SUBSubstitution, Tunisia. Elias Achouri replaces Ellyes Skhiri.

72' SUBSubstitution, Tunisia. Sebastian Tounekti replaces Elias Saad.

72' SUBSubstitution, Tunisia. Hadj Mahmoud replaces Yan Valery.

83' SUBSubstitution, Tunisia. Ismaël Gharbi replaces Rani Khedira.

84' SUBSubstitution, Tunisia. Firas Chaouat replaces Anis Ben Slimane.

84' SUBSubstitution, Sweden. Mattias Svanberg replaces Jesper Karlström.

84' GOALGoal! Sweden 4, Tunisia 1. Mattias Svanberg (Sweden) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Alexander Isak following a set piece situation.Goal awarded following VAR Review.

90' SUBSubstitution, Sweden. Anthony Elanga replaces Alexander Isak.

90'+1' SUBSubstitution, Sweden. Daniel Svensson replaces Alexander Bernhardsson.

90'+6' GOALGoal! Sweden 5, Tunisia 1. Yasin Ayari (Sweden) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Lucas Bergvall.

Lineups

Sweden

3-1-4-2

23Kristoffer Nordfeldt G
4Isak Hien CD
3Victor Lindelöf CD-L
2Gustaf Lagerbielke CD-R
16Jesper Karlström SW
18Yasin Ayari CM-L
10Benjamin Nygren CM-R
5Gabriel Gudmundsson LM
21Alexander Bernhardsson RM
9Alexander Isak CF-L
17Viktor Gyökeres CF-R

Subs: Elliot Stroud, Lucas Bergvall, Mattias Svanberg, Anthony Elanga, Daniel Svensson

Tunisia

5-3-2

1Mouhib Chamakh G
3Montassar Talbi CD
21Mohamed Amine Ben Hamida CD-L
4Omar Rekik CD-R
2Ali Abdi LB
20Yan Valery RB
17Ellyes Skhiri CM
10Hannibal Mejbri CM-L
13Rani Khedira CM-R
25Anis Slimane CF-L
8Elias Saad CF-R

Subs: Elias Achouri, Sebastian Tounekti, Mohamed Hadj Mahmoud, Ismaël Gharbi, Firas Chaouat