World Cup 2026

← All matches
Matchday 4 · Group F · 2026-06-14
Netherlands
xG 2.58
HT 0–02 – 2
Japan
xG 1.50
Netherlands Virgil van Dijk 51′, Crysencio Summerville 64′  ·  Japan Keito Nakamura 57′, Daichi Kamada 88′
AT&T Stadium · 69,285 attendance
The story

A 2–2 draw — the model had that at 24%. The decisive moment came late, in the 88th minute.

Expected goals race
120′15′30′45′60′75′90′2.58Virgil van Dijk 51′Crysencio Summerville 64′1.50Keito Nakamura 57′Daichi Kamada 89′
Netherlands Japan ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Donyell Malen · 3′ · xG 0.22 · Shot On TargetHiroki Ito · 28′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetDonyell Malen · 34′ · xG 0.33 · Shot On TargetMicky van de Ven · 34′ · xG 0.14 · Shot Off TargetCody Gakpo · 36′ · xG 0.33 · Shot Off TargetKeito Nakamura · 43′ · xG 0.15 · Shot Off TargetAyase Ueda · 45′ · xG 0.18 · Shot Off TargetVirgil van Dijk · 51′ · xG 0.22 · Goal - HeaderKeito Nakamura · 57′ · xG 0.12 · GoalCrysencio Summerville · 64′ · xG 0.11 · GoalTakefusa Kubo · 67′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetCody Gakpo · 73′ · xG 0.14 · Shot On TargetJan Paul van Hecke · 73′ · xG 0.41 · Shot On TargetKeito Nakamura · 75′ · xG 0.08 · Shot Off TargetTeun Koopmeiners · 76′ · xG 0.38 · Shot BlockedKoki Ogawa · 78′ · xG 0.12 · Shot Off TargetYukinari Sugawara · 80′ · xG 0.20 · Shot On TargetKoki Ogawa · 88′ · xG 0.22 · Shot BlockedDaichi Kamada · 89′ · xG 0.30 · Goal - HeaderTeun Koopmeiners · 90'+3′ · xG 0.30 · Shot Off Target
Netherlands (attacking →) Japan (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Netherlands  ·  match stats  ·  Japan
59.8 Possession 40.2
10 Shots 10
6 On Target 3
5 Corners 4
7 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 0
1 Saves 4
3 Yellows 0
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Netherlands 53%draw 24%Japan 23%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Netherlands 1990, Japan 1880. The model priced this Netherlands 53% / draw 24% / Japan 23%, most likely score 1–1. Reality had other plans. The result moves 8 Elo points from Netherlands to Japan — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
51' GOALGoal! Netherlands 1, Japan 0. Virgil van Dijk (Netherlands) header from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Ryan Gravenberch with a cross following a set piece situation.
57' GOALGoal! Netherlands 1, Japan 1. Keito Nakamura (Japan) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Takefusa Kubo.
61' YELLOWCrysencio Summerville (Netherlands) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
64' GOALGoal! Netherlands 2, Japan 1. Crysencio Summerville (Netherlands) left footed shot from the right side of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Ryan Gravenberch.
66' SUBSubstitution, Japan. Junya Ito replaces Daizen Maeda.
70' SUBSubstitution, Netherlands. Memphis Depay replaces Donyell Malen.
70' SUBSubstitution, Netherlands. Teun Koopmeiners replaces Crysencio Summerville.
70' SUBSubstitution, Netherlands. Quinten Timber replaces Tijjani Reijnders.
75' SUBSubstitution, Japan. Yukinari Sugawara replaces Ritsu Doan.
75' SUBSubstitution, Japan. Takehiro Tomiyasu replaces Tsuyoshi Watanabe.
75' SUBSubstitution, Japan. Koki Ogawa replaces Takefusa Kubo because of an injury.
81' SUBSubstitution, Netherlands. Nathan Aké replaces Ryan Gravenberch.
83' YELLOWMemphis Depay (Netherlands) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
84' SUBSubstitution, Japan. Kento Shiogai replaces Ayase Ueda.
85' SUBSubstitution, Netherlands. Brian Brobbey replaces Cody Gakpo.
89' GOALGoal! Netherlands 2, Japan 2. Daichi Kamada (Japan) header from the centre of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Koki Ogawa following a corner.
90'+1' YELLOWMicky van de Ven (Netherlands) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
Lineups
Netherlands
4-3-3
  • 1Bart Verbruggen G
  • 4Virgil van Dijk CD-L
  • 6Jan Paul van Hecke CD-R
  • 15Micky van de Ven LB
  • 22Denzel Dumfries RB
  • 21Frenkie de Jong CM
  • 14Tijjani Reijnders LM
  • 8Ryan Gravenberch RM
  • 18Donyell Malen F
  • 11Cody Gakpo LF
  • 24Crysencio Summerville RF
Subs: Memphis Depay, Teun Koopmeiners, Quinten Timber, Nathan Aké, Brian Brobbey
Japan
3-4-2-1
  • 1Zion Suzuki G
  • 3Shogo Taniguchi CD
  • 21Hiroki Ito CD-L
  • 16Tsuyoshi Watanabe CD-R
  • 15Daichi Kamada CM-L
  • 24Kaishu Sano CM-R
  • 13Keito Nakamura LM
  • 10Ritsu Doan RM
  • 18Ayase Ueda F
  • 11Daizen Maeda CF-L
  • 8Takefusa Kubo CF-R
Subs: Junya Ito, Yukinari Sugawara, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Koki Ogawa, Kento Shiogai
← Fixtures, table & predictions

Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).