World Cup 2026

← All matches
Matchday 15 · Group D · 2026-06-25
Paraguay
xG 0.79
HT 0–00 – 0
Australia
xG 1.65
Levi's Stadium · 68,827 attendance
The story

A 0–0 draw — the model had that at 26%.

Expected goals race
0.511.50′15′30′45′60′75′90′0.791.65
Paraguay Australia ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Jackson Irvine · 4′ · xG 0.20 · Shot On TargetAiden O'Neill · 10′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetConnor Metcalfe · 23′ · xG 0.06 · Shot BlockedJordan Bos · 36′ · xG 0.06 · Shot On TargetGabriel Ávalos · 38′ · xG 0.22 · Shot Off TargetCristian Volpato · 45'+2′ · xG 0.09 · Shot On TargetJackson Irvine · 45'+3′ · xG 0.25 · Shot Off TargetJuan José Cáceres · 46′ · xG 0.02 · Shot Off TargetAndrés Cubas · 48′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetMauricio · 50′ · xG 0.06 · Shot On TargetNestory Irankunda · 59′ · xG 0.11 · Shot Off TargetNestory Irankunda · 60′ · xG 0.05 · Shot BlockedAjdin Hrustic · 61′ · xG 0.11 · Shot BlockedJulio Enciso · 82′ · xG 0.08 · Shot BlockedJulio Enciso · 82′ · xG 0.12 · Shot Off TargetJordan Bos · 83′ · xG 0.33 · Shot On TargetJordan Bos · 90′ · xG 0.14 · Shot Off TargetMauricio · 90'+3′ · xG 0.22 · Shot On TargetTete Yengi · 90'+3′ · xG 0.20 · Shot On Target
Paraguay (attacking →) Australia (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Paraguay  ·  match stats  ·  Australia
44 Possession 56
7 Shots 12
2 On Target 5
1 Corners 3
9 Fouls 6
0 Offsides 0
5 Saves 2
1 Yellows 1
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Paraguay 35%draw 26%Australia 40%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Paraguay 1779, Australia 1797. The model priced this Paraguay 35% / draw 26% / Australia 40%, most likely score 1–1. A plausible-but-not-favoured outcome. The result moves 1 Elo points from Australia to Paraguay — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
45' SUBSubstitution, Paraguay. Mauricio replaces Alexandro Maidana.
46' YELLOWJackson Irvine (Australia) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
58' SUBSubstitution, Australia. Ajdin Hrustic replaces Cristian Volpato.
67' SUBSubstitution, Paraguay. Álex Arce replaces Gabriel Ávalos.
77' YELLOWDiego Gómez (Paraguay) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
84' SUBSubstitution, Paraguay. José Canale replaces Omar Alderete because of an injury.
84' SUBSubstitution, Australia. Paul Okon-Engstler replaces Jackson Irvine.
84' SUBSubstitution, Australia. Tete Yengi replaces Nestory Irankunda.
90'+2' SUBSubstitution, Paraguay. Damián Bobadilla replaces Diego Gómez.
90'+2' SUBSubstitution, Paraguay. Júnior Alonso replaces Matías Galarza.
Lineups
Paraguay
5-3-2
  • 12Orlando Gil G
  • 15Gustavo Gómez CD
  • 3Omar Alderete CD-L
  • 2Gustavo Velázquez CD-R
  • 26Alexandro Maidana LB
  • 4Juan Jose Cáceres RB
  • 14Andrés Cubas CM
  • 23Matías Galarza CM-L
  • 8Diego Gómez CM-R
  • 19Julio Enciso CF-L
  • 21Gabriel Ávalos CF-R
Subs: Maurício, Alex Arce, José Canale, Damián Bobadilla, Júnior Alonso
Australia
3-4-2-1
  • 18Patrick Beach G
  • 19Harry Souttar CD
  • 25Lucas Herrington CD-L
  • 3Alessandro Circati CD-R
  • 22Jackson Irvine CM-L
  • 13Aiden O'Neill CM-R
  • 16Aziz Behich LM
  • 5Jordan Bos RM
  • 17Nestory Irankunda F
  • 8Connor Metcalfe CF-L
  • 20Cristian Volpato CF-R
Subs: Ajdin Hrustic, Paul Okon-Engstler, Tete Yengi
← Fixtures, table & predictions

Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).