World Cup 2026

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Matchday 7 · Group K · 2026-06-17
Uzbekistan
xG 1.42
HT 0–11 – 3
Colombia
xG 3.00
Uzbekistan Abbosbek Fayzullaev 60′  ·  Colombia Daniel Muñoz 40′, Luis Díaz 65′, Jáminton Campaz 90+9′
Estadio Banorte · 80,824 attendance
The story

The favourite delivered: Colombia (66% pre-match) beat Uzbekistan 3–1. The decisive moment came late, in the 90th minute.

Expected goals race
1230′15′30′45′60′75′90′1.42Abbosbek Fayzullaev 60′3.00Daniel Muñoz 40′Luis Díaz 65′Jaminton Campaz 90′
Uzbekistan Colombia ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Jhon Arias · 17′ · xG 0.09 · Shot Off Target? · 32′ · xG 0.17 · Shot Hit WoodworkJames Rodríguez · 40′ · xG 0.26 · Shot BlockedDaniel Muñoz · 40′ · xG 0.49 · Goal - VolleyJames Rodríguez · 45′ · xG 0.04 · Shot On TargetBekhruz Karimov · 45'+2′ · xG 0.10 · Shot Off TargetJefferson Lerma · 45'+4′ · xG 0.22 · Shot Off TargetGustavo Puerta · 45'+4′ · xG 0.09 · Shot BlockedEldor Shomurodov · 60′ · xG 0.17 · Shot On TargetAbbosbek Fayzullaev · 60′ · xG 0.64 · Goal - HeaderJhon Arias · 64′ · xG 0.28 · Shot BlockedJefferson Lerma · 64′ · xG 0.07 · Shot BlockedDavinson Sánchez · 64′ · xG 0.31 · Shot Off TargetLuis Díaz · 65′ · xG 0.21 · GoalJohan Mojica · 82′ · xG 0.04 · Shot Off TargetJefferson Lerma · 86′ · xG 0.26 · Shot Off TargetJaminton Campaz · 87′ · xG 0.12 · Shot Off TargetDostonbek Khamdamov · 88′ · xG 0.07 · Shot BlockedAkmal Mozgovoy · 90′ · xG 0.18 · Shot Off TargetDostonbek Khamdamov · 90'+2′ · xG 0.16 · Shot Off TargetJaminton Campaz · 90'+9′ · xG 0.32 · Goal - HeaderAzizbek Amonov · 90'+11′ · xG 0.05 · Shot Blocked? · 90'+11′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Hit Woodwork
Uzbekistan (attacking →) Colombia (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Uzbekistan  ·  match stats  ·  Colombia
38.6 Possession 61.4
8 Shots 15
2 On Target 4
3 Corners 4
14 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 3
1 Saves 1
1 Yellows 1
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Uzbekistan 15%draw 20%Colombia 66%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Uzbekistan 1700, Colombia 1900. The model priced this Uzbekistan 15% / draw 20% / Colombia 66%, most likely score 0–2. The model called it. The result moves 18 Elo points from Uzbekistan to Colombia — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
7' YELLOWJohan Mojica (Colombia) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
34' YELLOWAbdukodir Khusanov (Uzbekistan) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
40' GOALGoal! Uzbekistan 0, Colombia 1. Daniel Muñoz (Colombia) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the high centre of the goal. Assisted by Luis Díaz with a through ball.
45' SUBSubstitution, Uzbekistan. Dostonbek Khamdamov replaces Oston Urunov.
45' SUBSubstitution, Uzbekistan. Farrukh Sayfiev replaces Sherzod Nasrullaev.
60' GOALGoal! Uzbekistan 1, Colombia 1. Abbosbek Fayzullaev (Uzbekistan) header from very close range to the top left corner.
65' GOALGoal! Uzbekistan 1, Colombia 2. Luis Díaz (Colombia) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Gustavo Puerta.
72' SUBSubstitution, Colombia. Jaminton Campaz replaces James Rodríguez.
77' SUBSubstitution, Uzbekistan. Jakhongir Urozov replaces Rustam Ashurmatov because of an injury.
77' SUBSubstitution, Uzbekistan. Azizbek Amonov replaces Abbosbek Fayzullaev.
80' SUBSubstitution, Colombia. Richard Ríos replaces Gustavo Puerta.
80' SUBSubstitution, Colombia. Cucho Hernández replaces Luis Suárez.
90'+3' SUBSubstitution, Colombia. Andrés Gómez replaces Luis Díaz.
90'+3' SUBSubstitution, Colombia. Kevin Castaño replaces Jhon Arias.
90'+3' SUBSubstitution, Uzbekistan. Igor Sergeev replaces Eldor Shomurodov.
90'+9' GOALGoal! Uzbekistan 1, Colombia 3. Jaminton Campaz (Colombia) header from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Cucho Hernández with a cross.
Lineups
Uzbekistan
3-4-2-1
  • 1Utkir Yusupov G
  • 18Abdulla Abdullaev CD
  • 5Rustam Ashurmatov CD-L
  • 2Abdukodir Khusanov CD-R
  • 7Otabek Shukurov CM-L
  • 6Akmal Mozgovoy CM-R
  • 13Sherzod Nasrullaev LM
  • 24Behruzjon Karimov RM
  • 14Eldor Shomurodov F
  • 11Oston Urunov CF-L
  • 22Abbosbek Fayzullaev CF-R
Subs: Dostonbek Khamdamov, Farrukh Sayfiev, Jakhongir Urozov, Azizbek Amonov, Igor Sergeev
Colombia
4-3-3
  • 12Camilo Vargas G
  • 3Jhon Lucumí CD-L
  • 23Davinson Sánchez CD-R
  • 17Johan Mojica LB
  • 2Daniel Muñoz RB
  • 16Jefferson Lerma CM
  • 11Jhon Arias LM
  • 14Gustavo Puerta RM
  • 25Luis Suárez F
  • 7Luis Díaz LF
  • 10James Rodríguez RF
Subs: Jáminton Campaz, Richard Ríos, Cucho Hernández, Andrés Gómez, Kevin Castaño
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).