World Cup 2026

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Matchday 5 · Group G · 2026-06-15
Iran
xG 3.35
HT 1–12 – 2
New Zealand
xG 3.02
Iran Ramin Rezaeian 32′, Mohammad Mohebbi 64′  ·  New Zealand Elijah Just 7′, Elijah Just 54′
SoFi Stadium · 70,108 attendance
The story

A 2–2 draw — the model had that at 22%.

Expected goals race
1230′15′30′45′60′75′90′3.35Ramin Rezaeian 32′Mohammad Mohebbi 64′3.02Elijah Just 7′Elijah Just 54′
Iran New Zealand ● goal

Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.

Shot map
Arya Yousefi · 6′ · xG 0.15 · Shot On TargetElijah Just · 7′ · xG 0.43 · Goal - VolleySarpreet Singh · 12′ · xG 0.21 · Shot Off TargetMarko Stamenic · 14′ · xG 0.17 · Shot BlockedCallum McCowatt · 14′ · xG 0.17 · Shot Off TargetChris Wood · 14′ · xG 0.51 · Shot BlockedSarpreet Singh · 19′ · xG 0.07 · Shot On Target? · 23′ · xG 0.13 · Shot Hit WoodworkSaman Ghoddos · 29′ · xG 0.06 · Shot Off TargetLiberato Cacace · 29′ · xG 0.14 · Shot On TargetSaman Ghoddos · 30′ · xG 0.17 · Shot Off TargetShahriyar Moghanloo · 32′ · xG 0.34 · Shot BlockedRamin Rezaeian · 32′ · xG 0.55 · GoalChris Wood · 44′ · xG 0.06 · Shot On TargetCallum McCowatt · 45'+1′ · xG 0.07 · Shot On TargetShahriyar Moghanloo · 45'+3′ · xG 0.23 · Shot Off TargetChris Wood · 47′ · xG 0.07 · Shot Off TargetMehdi Ghayedi · 49′ · xG 0.13 · Shot BlockedShahriyar Moghanloo · 51′ · xG 0.08 · Shot Off TargetElijah Just · 54′ · xG 0.22 · GoalSarpreet Singh · 61′ · xG 0.18 · Shot On TargetMohammad Mohebbi · 64′ · xG 0.31 · Goal - HeaderMohammad Mohebbi · 73′ · xG 0.18 · Shot BlockedEhsan Hajisafi · 76′ · xG 0.07 · Shot BlockedMehdi Taremi · 80′ · xG 0.27 · Shot Off TargetFinn Surman · 81′ · xG 0.50 · Shot Off TargetAli Alipour · 85′ · xG 0.21 · Shot BlockedSaeid Ezatolahi · 85′ · xG 0.07 · Shot Off TargetSaeid Ezatolahi · 87′ · xG 0.06 · Shot On TargetAli Nemati · 89′ · xG 0.34 · Shot Off TargetChris Wood · 90'+2′ · xG 0.23 · Shot On Target
Iran (attacking →) New Zealand (attacking ←) size = xG · star = goal
Iran  ·  match stats  ·  New Zealand
48.5 Possession 51.5
17 Shots 14
4 On Target 8
4 Corners 1
10 Fouls 8
2 Offsides 0
6 Saves 2
1 Yellows 0
0 Reds 0
What the model expected
Iran 59%draw 22%New Zealand 19%ACTUAL

Pre-match Elo: Iran 1820, New Zealand 1670. The model priced this Iran 59% / draw 22% / New Zealand 19%, most likely score 1–0. Reality had other plans. The result moves 10 Elo points from Iran to New Zealand — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.

Timeline
7' GOALGoal! IR Iran 0, New Zealand 1. Elijah Just (New Zealand) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the high centre of the goal. Assisted by Chris Wood.
32' GOALGoal! IR Iran 1, New Zealand 1. Ramin Rezaeian (IR Iran) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner.
45' SUBSubstitution, IR Iran. Mehdi Ghayedi replaces Arya Yousefi.
53' SUBSubstitution, IR Iran. Ali Alipour replaces Shahriyar Moghanloo.
54' GOALGoal! IR Iran 1, New Zealand 2. Elijah Just (New Zealand) right footed shot from the right side of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Chris Wood following a fast break.
64' GOALGoal! IR Iran 2, New Zealand 2. Mohammad Mohebbi (IR Iran) header from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Ramin Rezaeian with a cross.
65' SUBSubstitution, IR Iran. Ehsan Hajisafi replaces Saman Ghoddos.
68' SUBSubstitution, New Zealand. Ryan Thomas replaces Callum McCowatt.
68' SUBSubstitution, New Zealand. Ben Old replaces Liberato Cacace.
78' SUBSubstitution, New Zealand. Callan Elliot replaces Tim Payne.
80' SUBSubstitution, IR Iran. Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh replaces Mehdi Taremi.
89' YELLOWEhsan Hajisafi (IR Iran) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
90'+2' SUBSubstitution, New Zealand. Jesse Randall replaces Sarpreet Singh.
90'+2' SUBSubstitution, New Zealand. Tyler Bindon replaces Marko Stamenic.
Lineups
Iran
4-4-2
  • 1Alireza Beiranvand G
  • 19Ali Nemati CD-L
  • 4Shoja Khalilzadeh CD-R
  • 5Milad Mohammadi LB
  • 23Ramin Rezaeian RB
  • 6Saeid Ezatolahi CM-L
  • 14Saman Ghoddos CM-R
  • 17Arya Yousefi LM
  • 8Mohammad Mohebbi RM
  • 9Mehdi Taremi CF-L
  • 20Shahriyar Moghanloo CF-R
Subs: Mehdi Ghayedi, Ali Alipour, Ehsan Hajsafi, Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh
New Zealand
4-2-3-1
  • 1Max Crocombe G
  • 5Michael Boxall CD-L
  • 16Finn Surman CD-R
  • 13Liberato Cacace LB
  • 2Tim Payne RB
  • 10Sarpreet Singh AM
  • 8Marko Stamenic LM
  • 6Joe Bell RM
  • 9Chris Wood F
  • 11Elijah Just AM-L
  • 20Callum McCowatt AM-R
Subs: Ryan Thomas, Ben Old, Callan Elliot, Jesse Randall, Tyler Bindon
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Generated automatically from public match data. Stats: ESPN · Results: openfootball · xG: own naive model (distance + angle).