The favourite delivered: France (54% pre-match) beat Morocco 2–0. The xG race (4.66 vs 0.48) says it was as one-sided as the scoreline suggests.
Expected goals race
FranceMorocco● goal
Cumulative expected goals, minute by minute. ESPN's free feed has no xG, so each shot's xG is estimated with a naive distance-and-angle logistic model fitted on shot coordinates from the play-by-play.
Shot map
France (attacking →)Morocco (attacking ←)size = xG · star = goal
France · match stats · Morocco
48Possession52
22Shots5
8On Target1
5Corners5
10Fouls13
0Offsides0
1Saves6
0Yellows1
0Reds0
What the model expected
Pre-match Elo: France 2119, Morocco 2004. The model priced this France 54% / draw 24% / Morocco 23%, most likely score 1–1. The model called it. The result moves 26 Elo points from Morocco to France — that flows straight into the next round of tournament simulations.
Timeline
28'PEN SAVEDPenalty saved. Kylian Mbappé (France) right footed shot saved in the bottom right corner by Yassine Bounou (Morocco).
60'GOALGoal! France 1, Morocco 0. Kylian Mbappé (France) right footed shot from the left side of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Désiré Doué.
62'SUBSubstitution, Morocco. Soufiane Rahimi replaces Bilal El Khannouss.
63'YELLOWIssa Diop (Morocco) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
66'GOALGoal! France 2, Morocco 0. Ousmane Dembélé (France) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Kylian Mbappé.
71'SUBSubstitution, France. Warren Zaïre-Emery replaces Manu Koné.
74'SUBSubstitution, Morocco. Zakaria El Ouahdi replaces Anass Salah-Eddine.